Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 81

Detroit Lions 6 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to NYG 37, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-O.Beckham for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYG-37-E.Pinkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 41. Officially, a return for 4 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.22 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model