Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 60

New York Giants 10 – Detroit Lions 6

(14:49) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to DET 3, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.05 EP
76% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model