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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 87

Detroit Lions 6 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:29) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NYG 40, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Harris to NYG 48 for 8 yards (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.16 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 87, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 45, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP