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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 37

New York Giants 10 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 9-B.Wing punts 33 yards to DET 4, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP