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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 15

Detroit Lions 3 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.25 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model