Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to DET 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Roberts to DET 22 for 3 yards (93-B.Goodson). FUMBLES (93-B.Goodson), ball out of bounds at DET 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model