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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 35

Washington Commanders 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 88-P.Garcon to PHI 29 for 6 yards (21-L.McKelvin).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model