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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 34
Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Washington Commanders 21
What Actually Happened
(7:27) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to WAS 32 for 2 yards (92-C.Baker).
The Three Options
GO
+1.80 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
KICK
+0.38 EP
- 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
- 33% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT
-0.61 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
