Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 70

Washington Commanders 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS. PHI-43-D.Sproles was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Everett, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.87 EP
54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model