Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to WAS 26, Center-87-B.Celek. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 5 yards (37-C.Smith). PHI-87-B.Celek was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Everett, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.88 EP
54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model