Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Washington Commanders 7

(10:06) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 19 for 8 yards (47-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model