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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 10-J.Schum punts 33 yards to SEA 16, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.13 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP