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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 35 yards to GB 14, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.62 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP