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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 34

Green Bay Packers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.22 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model