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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 31 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 32-C.Michael right end to SEA 37 for -2 yards (31-K.Chancellor).

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model