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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 28

What Actually Happened

(11:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 15-J.Kearse [52-C.Matthews].

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.83 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model