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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 28 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 10-J.Schum punts 49 yards to SEA 18, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP