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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 28 yards to GB 16, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.30 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP