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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 45

New York Jets 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to SF 12, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP