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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 14 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 4-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.63 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model