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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 32

New York Jets 14 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(:43) 2-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.15 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model