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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 37

New York Jets 6 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short left to 17-C.Peake to SF 27 for 10 yards (98-R.Blair) [50-N.Bellore]. Caught at SF 29 2-yds YAC

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model