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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 17 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 34 for no gain (81-R.Streater).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.41 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model