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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 55

New York Jets 6 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to SF 19, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model