Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 17 – New York Jets 6

(3:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to NYJ 21, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-13-A.Burbridge.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.76 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model