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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 12

New York Jets 3 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. Penalty on SF-33-R.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model