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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 54

New York Jets 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to SF 19, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.57 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP