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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 53

New York Jets 3 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(:59) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to SF 11, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model