Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 78

New York Jets 3 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(4:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to SF 41, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model