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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 14 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model