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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 18

New York Jets 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.85 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 18, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model