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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model