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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 18-J.Locke punts 42 yards to JAX 35, Center-47-K.McDermott. 81-B.Walters to JAX 39 for 4 yards (84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model