4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 3-B.Nortman punts 29 yards to MIN 41, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds. Minn 27 Got a hand on the ball

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model