Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(10:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at MIN 41 for 9 yards (30-C.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.75 EP
74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 86, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model