4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(:13) 2-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.71 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.84 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model