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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model