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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.42 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model