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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to IND 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 18 for 2 yards (43-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.08 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP