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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.68 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.79 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model