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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 33-R.Turbin [75-V.Wilfork].

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.37 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model