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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 17

Houston Texans 19 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.98 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP