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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 16 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 14 for 2 yards (20-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP