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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 57

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP