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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.88 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model