Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 61

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 3

(14:27) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to CHI 4, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-29-J.Bademosi.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -2.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model