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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 44

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Bellamy (23-D.Slay).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP