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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 45

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.11 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model