4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 52

Chicago Bears 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.86 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP