Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 69

Chicago Bears 3 – Detroit Lions 3

(2:34) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model